Why Pablos Fell Short: A Closer Look at the 2025 Mayoral Runoff
Revolt Against City Hall Orthodoxy
In a recent article by the San Antonio Report, I provided some of my insights on the 2025 mayoral runoff election results between Gina Ortiz Jones and Rolando Pablos — particularly on why Pablos underperformed compared to other conservative-leaning candidates, such as Greg Brockhouse during his 2019 municipal runoff against Mayor Ron Nirenberg.
In short, unlike Brockhouse, Pablos failed to produce any meaningful inroads on the South, East, or West Sides of town, limiting his support to only two Northside districts: District 9 and District 10.
In full transparency, I worked on both Mayor Nirenberg’s 2019 re-election campaign and, more recently, on (now inaugurated) Mayor Gina Ortiz Jones’ mayoral bid.
The Brockhouse Coalition
As I noted in the article:
“Brockhouse won District 4, he nearly won District 3, he was close in District 2, and he won his own council district, District 6, by a pretty large margin,” said San Antonio political strategist Bert Santibañez, who worked on Nirenberg’s races. “Pablos didn’t make any headway on the South Side and definitely not on the East Side.”
To truly understand Greg Brockhouse’s voter coalition, it’s more instructive to view it not through a traditional partisan framework, but rather from the vantage point of an anti–City Hall populist appeal. After the decade of downtown marshaled in by Julian Castro during his tenure as Mayor, a growing and disquieting sentiment began to build along the peripheries of the city.
This brooding discontent became evident when, only less than a week after Castro departed to serve as President Obama’s HUD secretary, newly-appointed Mayor Ivy Taylor abruptly halted a downtown streetcar project proposed by VIA — signaling the first major rupture in the city’s downtown-centric policy trajectory. Later that year, despite originally claiming she wouldn’t seek a full term as Mayor, Taylor entered the mayor’s race and campaigned on the issue in 2015. She was soon heralded by Northside conservatives as a safeguard to their tax dollars against the perceived downtown machinations of city council, ultimately winning the election in a runoff against former State Sen. Leticia Van Putte.
Over the last several municipal cycles, a downtown-related albatross has consistently influenced the dynamics of the mayor’s race. And sure enough — lo and behold — there was another this cycle: Project Marvel. On the matter of the downtown stadium, Pablos came across as a business-as-usual candidate, offering minimal criticism to the city’s rollout of the project. Meanwhile, Jones positioned herself as a more skeptical voice, expressing concern over the project’s initial development. In particular, she criticized the use of non-disclosure agreements that kept an array of details concealed from the public.
All of this is to say one seemingly overlooked commonality between Brockhouse and Jones was their reform-minded orientation toward City Hall, which helped generate a broad base of voter support across the city. Not to mention, both are veterans — a factor that might explain why Jones performed so well in District 10, garnering 46% of the vote against Pablos. The Northeast district has historically been represented by veterans, including former councilmen Clayton Perry and Mike Gallagher.
Contra Abbott, Contra Pablos
Another significant factor that hampered Pablos’ mayoral prospects was his association with Gov. Greg Abbott. As the former Secretary of State appointee of the Governor, Pablos connection to Abbott was inescapable. Notably, during his campaign, Pablos accepted donations from other former appointees of the governor, such as David Whitley, as can be seen here.
For context, Abbott is deeply unliked by the San Antonio electorate. During the 2022 gubernatorial race against Beto O’Rourke, Abbott received a mere 38.5% against O’Rourke in city of San Antonio precincts. Even Pablos’ attempts to distance himself from partisan attachments, receiving endorsements from former Democratic State Sen. Leticia Van De Putte and the San Antonio Express-News, was met with incredulous skepticism by voters.
This might seem head-scratching to some, but as I said in the aforementioned article:
“They weren’t fooling anyone,” Santibañez said of the candidates still trying to run nonpartisan races. “In these partisan times, whether you’re a progressive or conservative, just state your case.”
In the broader political ecosystem, especially amidst President Trump’s second term, San Antonio voters had little patience with perceived conventional candidates this cycle.
Ultimately, the 2025 mayoral runoff wasn’t simply a contest between two candidates of diametrically different partisan leanings; it was a reflection of deeper undercurrents that have shaped San Antonio’s political terrain over the past decade. The race reaffirmed that voters remain skeptical of the insular culture in city politics, wary of previous political entanglements, and more attuned than ever to authenticity—particularly in a climate where nonpartisan posturing often rings hollow. Whether through the anti–downtown populism of Greg Brockhouse or the reform-driven pragmatism of Gina Ortiz Jones, the message was unmistakable: candidates who disrupt the apple cart, speak plainly, and reflect the lived experiences of voters across the city stand the best chance of forging a winning coalition in San Antonio.
Great to see you back in the saddle! Hope we can look forward to more posts soon. :)