Bexar Bones: Issue #2 - County Commissioner, Pct 3
Bexar's Northside Partisan Shift
Nearly without exception, if you ask almost anyone who is politically-inclined in Bexar County, the common knee-jerk assumption is the county’s Northside is practically impenetrable for Democratic encroachment in terms of winning over voters. Looking at recent election results over the last several cycles, though, one can easily dismantle that untested belief.
Specifically, by Northside, arguably no other district covers the upper portion of Bexar more than County Commissioner, Precinct 3. From east to west, the district overlaps with incorporated municipalities such as Alamo Heights, Terrell Heights (both overwhelmingly affluent areas), extends to the nearby Brookhallow neighborhoods, and crosses over I-10 into Helotes and the Fair Oaks Ranch. Encompassing such a vast region, unquestionably, Precinct 3 can declaratively be deemed “Bexar’s Northside“ without hesitation.
Biden vs Trump - 2020 General Election (County Commissioner, Precinct 3)
Glancing at past election results, in 2020, Joe Biden won the area against then President Trump by a little more than ~1,700 raw votes out of an overall turnout of 272,475 between the two. During that election cycle, Covid was still an ever-present, looming public health concern. Biden had campaigned largely on a pandemic-centric policy platform, ensuring voters a more measured approach was needed to rebuild back the country. The pandemic had devastated many communities, wrecked havoc on the economy, and pushed the hospital system to a near brink. In turn, Trump aruged Biden had plans to shutdown the economy with heavy-handed Covid mandates if he was to become President. Nevertheless, with all those swirling dynamics in play, Biden received ~59% in a two-way vote against Trump in Bexar and edged him out by three-tenths of a percentage point in Pct 3.
O’Rourke vs Abbott - 2022 General Election (County Commissioner, Precinct 3)
In 2022, in the gubernatorial contest between Greg Abbott and Beto O’Rourke, the district yielded similar partisan results to that of the previous cycle, but with a notable 1.4% shift toward the top-of-ticket Republican candidate. Republican County Commissioner, Grant Moody, also received 102,898 votes (53.6%) against Democratic challenger Susan Korbel. Instead of Covid as a central issue, the national conversation shifted toward reproductive rights after Roe v. Wade was overturned by the Supreme Court in June earlier that year. For those with democratic sensibilities, the pressing question is why, after such an unprecedented event with the fall of Roe, did the region shift in favor of Republicans? In a recent article from Gallup, which overviews longitudinal data of economic sentiment on a yearly basis, illustrated American attitudes toward the economy were at its worst in June 2022, with inflation reaching its highest point in the last 40 years. Speculation has its limits, though, but a reasonable conjecture can be made that the economy had an equalizing force on voter sentiment (and in turn, voter’s behavior at the ballot box).
Most importantly (and the central reason for this post), is the rapid democratic partisan shift in the district over the last several election cycles. Both in 2012 and 2014, top-of-ticket Republican candidates (Romney and Greg Abbott respectively) were handily winning the district by an almost 2-to-1 margin. In 2016, however, that all changed with the advent of Trump’s candidacy. From 2014 to 2020, there was nearly a ~15 point democratic shift in the district. After the 2020 election, 538 published an in-depth article examining several factors why suburbs have shifted leftward in terms of their voting habits. In short, they concluded variables such as racial diversity and higher education levels are the main causes for this phenomenon. With Trump on the ballot once again this November, it’ll be interesting to observe if this remains the case when the electoral dust settles.